← Card Nation Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Card Nation Store Championship
decks
1
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1442
· median 1442
· range 1442–1442
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1264
Q3 1424
1584
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 19.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
